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Canadians see NDP’s Singh as a greater PM than Tories’ O’Toole, Leger survey suggests

NDP Chief Jagmeet Singh might need purpose to smile solely weeks earlier than a potential election name as a brand new survey suggests extra Canadians consider he would make a greater prime minister than the Conservatives’ Erin O’Toole.

Whereas the survey by Leger and the Affiliation for Canadian Research had 25 per cent of respondents choosing Justin Trudeau as one of the best prime minister, Singh wasn’t far behind with 19 per cent whereas solely 13 per cent selected O’Toole.

The survey additionally discovered a 3 per cent enhance in help for the NDP amongst determined voters, who in any other case remained largely unchanged of their help for the Liberals and Tories.

Thirty-four per cent of determined voters mentioned they supported the Liberals, whereas the Conservatives stood at 29 per cent and the NDP at 22 per cent.

The web survey, carried out July 16 to 18, polled 2,069 Canadians. It can’t be assigned a margin of error as a result of internet-based polls are usually not thought-about random samples.

The survey might characterize dangerous information for O’Toole and the Conservatives as they proceed to bump towards what Leger govt vice-president Christian Bourque described as a “30 per cent glass ceiling” underneath O’Toole’s management.

But it might additionally sign hassle for Trudeau’s probabilities of profitable a majority Liberal authorities as earlier election outcomes have seen the Liberals endure from robust help for the NDP.

Bourque nonetheless cautioned towards overstating how the NDP’s obvious uptick in help will play out throughout an election, saying that the outcomes do not essentially translate into extra seats for the celebration.

“The NDP might find yourself with 20 per cent of the vote and 10 seats, or 20 per cent of the vote and 30 seats,” Bourque mentioned.

“Lots will trip on Singh’s expertise and strategic voting. The extra the CPC is a menace, the extra the Liberals will eat into NDP help in Ontario, Quebec and, possibly, Manitoba.”

Bourque believes the time is now for Trudeau to name an election and attempt to trip widespread help for a way the Liberals dealt with the COVID-19 pandemic if he needs to have any likelihood of profitable a coveted majority authorities.

The survey discovered that 55 per cent of respondents believed Trudeau had carried out properly or very properly in managing the pandemic, the realm the place he had essentially the most such constructive evaluations.

“For Liberal strategists, this might not be the optimum window to drop the writ, nevertheless it probably stays the least worst for the subsequent couple of minutes,” Bourque mentioned in an electronic mail.

“Liberals have to eat help from the NDP and Greens, but additionally the Bloc Quebecois. That is why operating on their COVID-19 file — and file total — must work.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first printed July 21, 2021.

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